The most recent seasonal outlook we could confirm from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, issued August 6, 2026, still favours a quiet Atlantic hurricane season. It gives a 75 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 20 percent chance of a near-normal season and a 5 percent chance of an above-normal one. With the season officially running until November 30, travellers booked into the Caribbean or Mexico this autumn are likely to ask what that means for them. The short answer is that a below-normal forecast lowers the odds of a busy season but does not remove the risk to any single trip.
What the August outlook says
The Climate Prediction Center’s outlook page sets out ranges with a 70 percent probability each: 7 to 13 named storms, which includes the two that had already formed by the issue date, 2 to 6 hurricanes and 0 to 2 major hurricanes. Accumulated cyclone energy is expected to land between 30 and 90 percent of the median. At the time of issue, the two named storms recorded so far had produced about 3 percent of the median energy, and the page reported no hurricanes or major hurricanes to date.
Why El Nino matters
The outlook ties its call to El Nino, which it says is expected to continue and strengthen through the rest of the hurricane season. It puts the chance of a strong or very strong event during August to October at 90 percent, with a 48 percent chance of a very strong one, and cites a 100 percent chance that El Nino conditions continue through the peak period. In general terms, a strengthening El Nino tends to suppress Atlantic activity, which is the reasoning behind the below-normal call. It is a probability, not a guarantee.
What the National Hurricane Center was showing
The National Hurricane Center home page, checked on October 11, 2026, showed one active Atlantic system: Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias, in Advisory 15 issued the morning of October 10. It was located at 32.0 N, 86.5 W, well north of the Caribbean, moving north at 14 mph with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and a minimum pressure of 1002 millibars. The headline concerned a continuing flash flooding risk, and the page said the Center had issued its last advisory on the system, with future advisories passing to the Weather Prediction Center. The page’s Tropical Weather Outlook was dated October 10, and we could not read its contents, so we make no statement about other disturbances. Check the live page for the latest.
What this means for a late-season trip
Peak activity in the Atlantic is normally from mid-August to mid-October, and late-season storms still form into November. A below-normal outlook therefore does not mean the risk is gone for travellers going out in the coming weeks. It means the seasonal odds are tilted toward fewer and weaker storms. Individual trips are decided by individual storms, so keep the usual protections in place.
- Read the resort’s hurricane or weather policy before you pay, as covered in a resort’s own cancellation and refund policy.
- Check whether your travel insurance covers named storms and when the policy must be bought, as explained in what travel insurance actually covers.
- Watch the Center’s forecasts in the days before departure instead of relying on the seasonal outlook alone.
Reading a seasonal outlook correctly
A seasonal outlook describes the whole Atlantic basin over several months. It says nothing about where a particular storm will go, when, or how strong it will be. A season with few storms can still include one that strikes a single island hard, and a season with many storms can pass most resort coasts by. The useful way to read the figure is as background odds, then to switch to the Center’s short-range forecasts once your departure is within about a week. Also note that the outlook counts storms across the entire basin, including those that never come near a resort coast.
For planning more broadly, see how hurricane season affects a Caribbean or Mexico resort trip, traveling during hurricane season and our evergreen guide to hurricane season in the Caribbean. If your trip is to Jamaica, which is still rebuilding after Hurricane Melissa, Jamaica’s hotel reopenings is worth reading as well.
Limits of this report
The outlook is dated August 6, 2026, and NOAA may have issued newer material that we did not find. The page’s footer shows an older modified date than the stated issue date, so check the Climate Prediction Center directly for the current version. We have not independently counted this season’s storms beyond the figures printed on those pages, and we make no prediction of our own. For how we handle claims we cannot confirm, see how we verify.
Sources: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Atlantic hurricane season outlook; NOAA National Hurricane Center.